If war is indeed the extension of politics by other means and each conflict reflects a deeper, unresolved contradiction, the violence witnessed over the past year—including the ongoing direct confrontation between Israel and Iran—stems from two deeply entrenched political issues.
First, the denial of Palestinians’ fundamental rights amid Israel’s prolonged occupation, and second, Iran’s disregard for international law, marked by its support of militias across fragile Arab states from Lebanon to Yemen.
Envisioning a Middle East where a secure Palestine and Israel coexist peacefully, embedded within a harmonious Arab and Muslim community, and an Iran that shifts from an interventionist stance to focus on its own citizens’ security and welfare, offers a pathway to genuine stability and prosperity.
Is this vision unrealistic, or can every crisis indeed present an opportunity? Are these ambitions too lofty, or are they the only ones truly worth pursuing? Can leaders pursue such transformative goals? History shows that they can, and some have done so before. The region now needs a bold, comprehensive plan—an ambitious ‘Vision 2030’ for the Middle East. Below are two key elements of this forward-thinking approach.
A Path Forward for Israel and Palestine
Before October 7, the two-state solution to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict had lost momentum and support, especially within Israel. However, recent events have placed the Palestinian issue back in the spotlight of regional concerns. Saudi Arabia’s Foreign Minister, Prince Faisal bin Farhan, recently asserted that the kingdom would not proceed with normalization efforts without resolving the Palestinian issue.
While Israel may be achieving military victories against Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran, these gains come at a heavy human cost. Israel currently lacks a sustainable plan for the future of Gaza and the West Bank beyond reinforcing occupation and suppression. This approach is neither secure nor viable for Israel in the 21st century, and it certainly does not provide a future for Palestinians who remain committed to their ancestral lands.
Israel faces a choice: it can use its military dominance to maintain an unsustainable status quo, or it can seek a new path rooted in confidence and regional cooperation. By offering Palestinians a legitimate political solution rather than repression or extremism, Israel can foster a more secure and prosperous future.
Progress hinges on regional engagement with diverse Israeli and Palestinian leaders. This engagement must emphasize the possibilities of a peaceful future while working with Palestinians to rebuild political legitimacy and institutions. Such a pathway will not come from external powers like Washington; it must be built within the region itself. It involves creating a framework for a Palestinian state free from the influence of Iranian-backed militias and other armed groups, ensuring sovereignty rests with legitimate Palestinian authorities.
Iran’s Crossroads: Rethinking Its Strategy
Up until recently, Iran appeared to be benefiting from its proxy strategies. Groups like Hamas had inflicted significant damage on Israel, and Hezbollah, its primary ally, was engaged in an ongoing conflict with Israel across the Lebanese border. However, since September 17, Israel has inflicted significant losses on Hezbollah, weakening Iran’s primary proxy and shifting the conflict directly towards Tehran.
For decades, since the end of the Iran-Iraq War in 1988, Iran has waged battles far from its own borders through proxy wars across Arab lands. Now, with Israel’s strong retaliation and the heightened tensions since October 7, this strategy is showing signs of failure. The region stands at a critical juncture: either the conflict between Israel and Iran escalates further, or this crisis opens a window for diplomatic solutions that can de-escalate tensions and create a more stable Middle East.
Iran is unlikely to seek an all-out war with Israel, particularly with U.S. forces actively involved in the region. With its proxies like Hamas and Hezbollah significantly weakened, Iranian leaders, including President Masoud Pezeshkian and Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, must recognize the need to offer their population a positive future.
Similar to Israel, Iran has opportunities for regional engagement that could secure its place in a prosperous Middle East. However, it must abandon its interventionist policies that violate the sovereignty of Arab states and its hostility towards Israel and the U.S. A sustainable future will not be built on these foundations.
The Middle East, a region known for its rich history and diverse cultures, has often faced numerous challenges that threaten its stability. The question now is: how can the region pull back from the brink? The answer lies in the age-old debate—should nations fight big or think big?
1. Understanding the Challenges
From geopolitical tensions, economic disparities, and resource constraints to the impacts of climate change, the Middle East finds itself at a critical crossroads. Conflicts have resulted in devastation, displacement, and economic hardships, while reliance on oil revenues is increasingly precarious due to global shifts toward sustainable energy. To secure a prosperous future, a multifaceted approach is essential.
2. The ‘Fight Big’ Approach: A Costly Gamble
Historically, the region has seen power struggles and military conflicts as a means of resolving disputes or asserting dominance. This ‘fight big’ approach, while sometimes yielding short-term gains, has long-term consequences, including humanitarian crises, weakened economies, and social fragmentation. The cycle of violence has not only left countries vulnerable but has also hindered their development prospects.
Continued reliance on conflict as a solution will not bring the stability needed for growth. In an interconnected world, militaristic endeavors not only exhaust resources but also alienate global partners who prefer diplomacy and development. For the Middle East to move forward, a shift in mindset is required.
3. The ‘Think Big’ Approach: Embracing Visionary Strategies
‘Thinking big’ emphasizes visionary leadership, economic diversification, and regional cooperation. Several Middle Eastern countries are already exploring this path, focusing on sustainability, technology, and innovative industries. For example:
- Economic Diversification: Countries like the UAE and Saudi Arabia are implementing long-term plans such as Vision 2030 to reduce reliance on oil, develop renewable energy projects, and grow tourism and tech industries.
- Diplomatic Engagement: Regional peace agreements, like the Abraham Accords, show that cooperation can be a powerful tool for progress. Through alliances, countries can open new markets, attract international investment, and boost economic growth.
- Youth Empowerment and Education: The Middle East is home to a young and vibrant population. By investing in education and creating job opportunities in emerging sectors like tech, healthcare, and finance, the region can harness its youth’s potential as a driving force for innovation and stability.
4. Strategic Partnerships: Leveraging Global Alliances
The Middle East must actively seek partnerships with global superpowers and regional neighbors, not just for defense but for development. Collaboration on climate change, green technologies, and digital infrastructure can open avenues for sustainable growth. Initiatives like the Middle East Green Initiative championed by Saudi Arabia are excellent examples of how collective efforts can address shared challenges.
Moreover, enhancing regional cooperation through platforms like the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and other economic alliances can reduce tensions and foster trade, tourism, and technological advancements. A united front, with a focus on economic prosperity, is crucial for creating a stable and prosperous region.
5. Harnessing Innovation for Growth
Innovation will play a central role in shaping the Middle East’s future. Investment in technology, digital transformation, and the renewable energy sector can create new industries and reduce the region’s vulnerability to global economic shocks. Smart cities, digital economies, and tech hubs are emerging as models for economic diversification and growth.
Dubai’s rise as a global business hub is a testament to the power of innovation and vision. Other nations in the region can learn from these successes and develop their own blueprints for sustainable progress.
6. Fostering a Culture of Peace and Stability
The foundation for thinking big lies in promoting a culture of peace, understanding, and collaboration. Nations must prioritize social reforms, human rights, and inclusive governance to create societies where diverse communities thrive. By focusing on social stability and economic prosperity, the region can become a place where investment and growth flourish.
7. Conclusion: A Collective Choice
The future of the Middle East depends on the collective choice to either fight big or think big. While challenges remain, the potential for growth, peace, and prosperity is immense. Leaders and communities across the region must embrace collaboration, innovation, and a forward-thinking approach to pull back from the brink and transform the Middle East into a global powerhouse of development and progress.
In essence, the path forward lies in uniting around a common vision—one that is bigger than individual conflicts and instead focused on building a future where every nation and community can prosper.
Large conflicts demand large solutions, and these solutions require visionary, long-term commitment. Israel and the region cannot achieve lasting security and prosperity without recognizing the rights of Palestinians. Similarly, Iran cannot attain stability without respecting the sovereignty of Arab states and adhering to international law. For Iran to create a future for its people, it must move beyond the ambitions of ideological or imperialist agendas.
The Middle East has successfully implemented grand visions in the past; now is the time to do so again. With a concerted regional effort and commitment, the region can navigate its current challenges and build a future characterized by stability and prosperity for all.
