A new study from the International Energy Agency (IEA) reveals that despite the rapid growth of solar energy and supportive policies from major economies, the commitment to triple global renewable energy capacity by 2030 is likely to fall short. According to the IEA’s Renewables 2024 report, while the volume of renewable energy is projected to grow by 2.7 times by 2030—exceeding countries’ current targets of 25 percent—this would only reach 10,800 gigawatts, just shy of the 11,000-gigawatt target set at the COP28 climate conference. Nevertheless, the IEA’s accelerated scenario outlines a potential pathway to achieve the tripling goal.
In 2023, renewable energy capacity reached a record 3,870 gigawatts, according to a March IEA report. However, despite this progress, the IEA noted in July that the expansion rate is still insufficient to meet the 2030 targets. Tripling renewable energy capacity by 2030 was a central outcome of the UAE Consensus adopted at COP28, aimed at advancing global climate and sustainable development goals.
Despite the ambitious targets, IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol noted that the growth of renewables is outpacing the rate at which governments are setting targets. “This growth is not solely driven by emissions reduction efforts or energy security concerns; renewables are increasingly the cheapest option for new power plants in most countries worldwide,” he said.
The updated IEA scenario suggests that China, Europe, India, and the United States will collectively account for 80 percent of global installed renewable energy capacity. This growth will be bolstered by measures such as improving grid integration, accelerating solar system installations, stimulating investments, and facilitating land procurement.
China is expected to contribute approximately 60 percent of this expansion. The country is projected to surpass its 1,200-gigawatt target for solar and wind energy by 2030, achieving it six years ahead of schedule. In a June report, Climate Energy Finance, an Australian think tank, also anticipated that China would reach this milestone earlier than expected. The IEA noted that since the end of feed-in tariffs in 2020, China’s cumulative solar photovoltaic capacity has nearly quadrupled, while its wind capacity has doubled, driven by cost-competitiveness and supportive policies from Beijing. The country’s success is attributed to its comprehensive support for both large-scale and distributed renewable projects across all technologies.
The IEA report estimates that between now and 2030, new solar capacity will account for around 80 percent of the global growth in renewable power as costs decline, permitting timelines shorten, and social acceptance becomes more widespread. Additionally, cost-competitiveness and policy support are expected to drive the growth of distributed applications among residential and commercial consumers as they seek to lower electricity bills.
Renewable capacity growth in the European Union is anticipated to double by 2030, supported by power purchase agreements and tax incentives, putting the bloc on track to achieve its 600-gigawatt solar energy target. In the United States, capacity is also expected to double, fueled by tax credits under the Inflation Reduction Act. Meanwhile, India, the world’s second-largest coal producer, is projected to have the fastest growth rate among major economies, driven by renewable energy auctions.
Despite these advances, the global fight against climate change is at a critical crossroads. Although bold commitments have been made, the world is still off track in its efforts to limit global warming to 1.5°C. Record-high temperatures across Europe, Asia, and North America this past summer have highlighted the urgency of these efforts, threatening lives, livelihoods, and industries.
Governments worldwide are increasingly turning to renewable energy, implementing policies to attract investment and develop essential infrastructure. However, global investment in renewables must more than triple in the next six years to meet the 11,000-gigawatt target by 2030, according to Dr. Sultan Al Jaber, the UAE’s special envoy for climate change and COP28 President, who spoke at the 79th UN General Assembly in New York.
In 2021, the IEA reported that global annual investment in clean energy needs to triple to about $4 trillion by 2030 to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050. The agency’s latest report highlights the impact of this investment shortfall, particularly in grid infrastructure, which limits the ability to support and utilize renewable energy effectively.
“Investment in grid infrastructure is lagging, leaving many advanced projects waiting for connection,” the IEA stated, though it acknowledged that reforms in some countries are starting to show results. Data from the agency shows that currently, 1,650 gigawatts of renewable capacity are in advanced stages of development but are awaiting grid connection, up from 1,500 gigawatts a year ago.
The global goal of tripling renewable energy capacity by 2030 is facing significant challenges, despite the rapid expansion of solar power. Renewable energy, especially solar, has seen exponential growth in recent years, but the momentum alone may not be sufficient to meet the ambitious targets set by international agreements like the Paris Climate Accord. Various factors are contributing to the likelihood that this goal will fall short, ranging from financial constraints to geopolitical issues and the complexities of transitioning to green energy.
Solar Power: A Bright Spot
Solar energy has been a standout in the renewable sector, with installation rates hitting record highs across the globe. Countries like China, the United States, and India have significantly ramped up their solar capacity, driven by technological advancements that have reduced costs and improved efficiency. Solar panels have become increasingly accessible, and the expansion of large-scale solar farms has boosted global energy output. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), solar is expected to account for the largest share of new renewable power capacity, underscoring its pivotal role in global decarbonization efforts.
The Challenges Holding Back the Transition
Despite solar’s remarkable growth, the renewable energy transition faces several obstacles that could hinder progress towards the 2030 goal. These include:
- Infrastructure and Grid Limitations: Many countries still lack the necessary infrastructure to support and integrate renewable energy sources into their grids. The current grid systems in several regions are outdated and struggle to manage the variable nature of renewable energy, leading to inefficiencies and underutilization. Upgrading grids and building energy storage facilities are critical but expensive investments that take time.
- Financing and Investment Gaps: Achieving the scale of renewable energy expansion needed to triple capacity by 2030 requires trillions of dollars in investment. While global financing for renewables has increased, the pace and volume of investment are still insufficient. Developing countries, in particular, face difficulties in securing the capital necessary to build renewable infrastructure due to higher investment risks and lower financial support from international bodies.
- Geopolitical and Policy Barriers: Geopolitical tensions, such as trade disputes and conflicts over resource access, can slow down the deployment of renewable technologies. Moreover, some countries continue to prioritize fossil fuels due to economic dependence or lack of renewable alternatives, further delaying the global transition.
- Land Use and Environmental Concerns: Large-scale renewable projects, such as wind farms and solar parks, require extensive land use, which can lead to conflicts with agriculture, conservation efforts, and local communities. Balancing environmental preservation with the need for renewable expansion remains a challenging task.
Policy Interventions: What Needs to Change?
To bridge the gap and boost renewable energy capacity, governments and organizations must implement and enforce stronger policies. This includes increasing subsidies for renewable technologies, incentivizing private investments, and implementing carbon pricing mechanisms to make fossil fuel alternatives less competitive. Additionally, international collaboration is crucial in transferring technology and funding to developing nations, ensuring that the global energy transition is equitable.
A Holistic Approach: Beyond Solar
While solar energy continues to be a driving force, a diversified renewable portfolio that includes wind, hydropower, geothermal, and emerging technologies like green hydrogen is essential. Each renewable source has its strengths and can complement the others, leading to a more stable and resilient energy grid.
Furthermore, advancements in energy storage systems and the development of smart grids can optimize energy distribution and storage, addressing some of the key obstacles facing the renewable sector today.
Despite the impressive strides made in solar energy, the goal of tripling global renewable capacity by 2030 faces several roadblocks. Without accelerated action in policy, investment, and infrastructure development, the world risks falling short of this crucial target. A coordinated, global effort is needed to turn the tide and ensure a sustainable, renewable-powered future.
Grid queues for early-stage projects have declined, as developments either progress or drop out due to lack of advancement. The IEA also noted that the untapped renewable potential in emerging and developing economies could be realized if policies improve. High financing costs reduce the economic viability of renewables in these regions, but measures such as creating stable policy environments and setting clear long-term targets could help unlock additional capacity. Policymakers in countries with fossil fuel overcapacity could also renegotiate long-term contracts and accelerate the phase-out of fossil fuel plants to make way for renewable energy.