In recent years, drones have emerged as key players in modern warfare, reshaping the dynamics of conflict across the globe. However, as technology continues to advance at an exponential rate, defense experts are already envisioning a future where warfare extends far beyond the realm of unmanned aerial vehicles. What might war look like in the 2040s? Join us as we explore the speculative landscape painted by these experts and delve into the potential transformations awaiting the battlefield.
The Evolution of Warfare: The advent of drones marked a significant shift in military strategy, offering unprecedented capabilities in reconnaissance, surveillance, and precision strikes. Yet, as we peer into the not-so-distant future, it becomes apparent that the evolution of warfare will transcend the confines of traditional aerial combat. Experts predict a multidimensional battlefield where emerging technologies such as autonomous systems, cyber warfare, and space-based assets play pivotal roles in shaping the outcome of conflicts.
Autonomous Systems and AI: One of the most profound changes anticipated in future warfare is the widespread integration of autonomous systems and artificial intelligence (AI). Imagine swarms of robotic soldiers capable of executing missions with unparalleled speed and efficiency, or AI algorithms making split-second decisions on the battlefield. While the potential benefits are undeniable, concerns regarding the ethical implications and the risk of autonomous weapons systems malfunctioning or being hacked loom large.
Cyber Warfare and Information Operations: In the digital age, warfare extends beyond the physical realm into cyberspace. As nations become increasingly reliant on interconnected systems, the vulnerability of critical infrastructure to cyber attacks becomes a pressing concern. From disrupting communication networks to sabotaging financial systems, cyber warfare has the potential to inflict significant damage with minimal physical force. Moreover, the weaponization of disinformation and propaganda further blurs the line between truth and fiction, shaping public perception and influencing the outcome of conflicts.
The Role of Space: Space has long been recognized as the ultimate high ground in warfare, offering strategic advantages ranging from satellite reconnaissance to precision-guided munitions. In the 2040s, the militarization of space is expected to accelerate, with nations vying for dominance beyond Earth’s atmosphere. Satellites equipped with advanced sensors will provide real-time intelligence, while space-based weapons platforms could potentially deliver devastating strikes anywhere on the globe. However, the weaponization of space also raises concerns about the escalation of conflicts into uncharted territory and the risk of orbital debris posing hazards to existing space infrastructure.
Many observers of conflicts in regions like Ukraine and the Middle East perceive low-cost drones as the ominous harbinger of future warfare—a landscape where no entity is immune from swarms of omnipresent aerial or underwater drones capable of sinking warships.
However, experts from the defense industry and government institutions suggest that drones merely scratch the surface of how militaries will engage in future conflicts. Analysts are actively engaged in envisioning the conduct of warfare well into the 2040s, reassessing everything from weaponry to military strategies.
“We’re contemplating the threat environment beyond 2040 and strategizing to develop the necessary technologies and capabilities to counter these threats,” says John Stocker, involved in the Future Combat Air System—a cutting-edge fighter jet initiative named Tempest, jointly developed by the UK’s BAE Systems and partners in Italy, Sweden, and Japan.
Drones are slated to assume pivotal roles in future conflicts; for instance, in the case of Tempest, they will be orchestrated by the jet, acting akin to a mothership. Notably, the US, NATO, and China are not only advancing larger, faster, and more sophisticated drones but are also engineering an array of complementary military systems across land, sea, and air, designed to work in synchrony.
Each component of this emerging warfare paradigm will constitute a “system of systems,” interconnected and empowered by artificial intelligence. The key focus lies in achieving high-tech, real-time coordination, spanning from swiftly identifying new threats within the network to promptly addressing logistical challenges as they arise.
Artificial intelligence will play a crucial role in parsing through vast troves of intelligence data streamed from myriad drones—both aerial and underwater, numbering in the thousands—alongside data from manned systems equipped with sensors capable of tracking targets over extensive distances.
In Western contexts, this approach is often termed “data-centric warfare,” while China espouses a similar doctrine dubbed “intelligentized warfare.” To effectively manage such data deluge, novel technologies like quantum computing will be indispensable, enabling the processing of information shared via encrypted communication channels.
Stocker proposes a system akin to iPhone software updates for platforms like Tempest—wherein operating systems remain compatible with diverse weapon systems, a concept referred to as the “combat cloud.”
William Nelson, deputy to the commanding general of the US Army Futures Command—a branch focused on modernizing the force for 2030 and beyond—stresses the necessity for planners to adopt a forward-thinking perspective, looking beyond the immediate horizon.
“Developing capabilities that are forward-thinking and designed to swiftly adapt to the evolving battlefield is absolutely crucial for ensuring readiness to win future wars,” he emphasized.
Drones, and the discourse surrounding them in defense circles, represent just one facet of this strategic imperative.
“Understanding the trajectory of unmanned aerial vehicle technology informs our present approach, ensuring preparedness for a wide spectrum of potential future threats,” Mr. Nelson remarked.
Moving beyond the current landscape, the vision of long-range, autonomous fighter drones stands in stark contrast to the armed quadcopters wielded by terrorist factions today or Iran’s most advanced explosive-laden drones, such as the Shahed 101. The latter is suspected to have been employed by an Iraqi militia in an attack that claimed three US soldiers at a base in Jordan last month.
The menace posed by low-cost drones has spurred the emergence of a niche industry dedicated to countering them. Innovations like lasers mounted on armored vehicles and specialized radars with 360-degree coverage are among the solutions devised to detect and neutralize these small, low-flying craft.
Fast-forwarding to the 2040s, the strategic focus of planners takes on a different hue.
In this envisioned future, drones won’t merely launch explosive attacks or survey battlefields for enemy presence; they could also operate in swarms equipped with electronic jamming capabilities to disrupt communications—a capability the US is actively pursuing.
In maritime domains, projects like the US’s Ghost Fleet Overlord envision approximately 150 unmanned ships by the 2040s, alongside numerous smaller surface and underwater drones.
Another initiative, Golden Horde, is testing swarms of “thinking” bombs capable of retargeting after release.
Artificial intelligence will not only aid commanders in parsing information to coordinate attacks and prioritize threats and targets but also assist pilots in making rapid decisions amidst a deluge of data.
Integral to this strategic evolution are what are loosely termed sixth-generation fighters like the Tempest, boasting technologies surpassing current fifth-generation jets such as Lockheed’s F-35 Lightning, where AI plays a pivotal role in supporting pilots by alleviating the burden of data analysis and comprehension.
Next-generation aircraft will serve as linchpins of data-centric warfare, with stealth being just one facet. Collaborative projects across Europe, Japan, and the US envisage leveraging quantum computing for code-breaking, rapidly advancing AI, and employing aircraft like the US’s new B-21 as motherships for other drones.
Designing prototypes poses challenges due to the nascent stage of some technologies.
“It’s part of an integrated system. So it’s not solely about one aircraft but considers options of other systems,” Mr. Stocker explains.
He underscores the importance of uncrewed aircraft operating alongside core platforms, augmenting overall capability alongside next-generation weapons and interconnected networks.
“If you’re functioning as a system, there must be seamless communication,” Mr. Stocker stresses.
Networks, Data, and Warfare
Data-centric warfare, which amalgamates combat power from diverse units and service branches, has been evolving for decades, evolving from the network-centric warfare of the 1990s with an increased emphasis on drones and enhanced computing power.
This approach is exemplified in the Red Sea, where US sensors—from satellites to ship radar and airborne radar—operate collaboratively as a threat detection network against Houthi missiles, swiftly assigning targets to ships or aircraft best positioned to respond. The synergy of these components surpasses their individual capabilities.
As the US and NATO allies progress towards a highly synchronized, networked attack, AI’s role as a facilitator for rapid decision-making becomes paramount.
Last year, AI-enabled swarms of small drones effectively tracked targets in a joint Australian, British, and American exercise, foreshadowing even more ambitious endeavors.
For instance, the US plans to deploy at least 1,000 unmanned aircraft to accompany its F-35s and the highly classified Next Generation Air Dominance fighter, with both jets serving as motherships to the drones, further linked to the Replicator Initiative aimed at mass-producing drones.
As we peer into the future of warfare in the 2040s, it becomes evident that the landscape of conflict will be shaped by a convergence of emerging technologies and geopolitical dynamics. From autonomous systems and AI to cyber warfare and space-based assets, the battlefield of tomorrow will be unlike anything we’ve seen before. While these advancements offer unprecedented capabilities, they also raise ethical, legal, and strategic challenges that must be carefully navigated. By understanding and anticipating these trends, we can better prepare for the realities of future conflict and strive towards a more peaceful and secure world.
